The Israel vs Iran war of June 2025 marked an unprecedented watershed moment in Middle Eastern geopolitics, resulting in 28 Israeli deaths and over 1,000 Iranian casualties. Following Iran’s launch of 180 ballistic missiles against Israel in October 2024, the conflict escalated dramatically, with Israeli jets conducting hundreds of airstrikes across Iran, targeting nuclear, military, and energy sites.
Despite the massive disparity in territorial size—Israel’s 22,000 km² compared to Iran’s 1,600,000 km²—and population differences of 10 million versus 90 million people, the Israel-Iran conflict demonstrated both nations’ willingness to engage in direct military confrontation. The financial toll was equally staggering, costing Israel hundreds of millions of dollars daily, with property damage estimated at approximately $1.5 billion. This marked a significant shift from earlier proxy battles, such as the October 2023 Gaza war that began with Hamas firing at least 3,000 rockets into Israel.
However, while the United States initially supported Israeli operations and ordered strikes on 85 Iran-affiliated targets in February 2024, questions remain about America’s appropriate role in this regional struggle. This analysis examines why, despite historic alliances and strategic interests, the Israel vs Iran military confrontation may not be America’s battle to fight—and what this means for future stability in one of the world’s most volatile regions.
The roots of the Israel vs Iran conflict
The long-standing animosity between Israel and Iran represents one of the most complex geopolitical rivalries in the Middle East, but it wasn’t always this way. Prior to 1979, Iran was one of the first Muslim countries to recognize Israel, with both nations enjoying diplomatic and military cooperation under Iran’s Pahlavi dynasty.
How the 1979 revolution changed everything
The Iranian Revolution fundamentally transformed the relationship between these two nations. When Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini overthrew the Shah in 1979, he introduced a radical new worldview that championed Islam while opposing what he called “arrogant” world powers. Consequently, Israel became known in Iran as the “Little Satan” to America’s “Great Satan”. Tehran immediately severed all official relations with Israel – cutting diplomatic ties, banning citizens from traveling between countries, and transforming the Israeli embassy in Tehran into the Palestinian embassy.
The new Iranian regime embraced an ideology combining radical Third-Worldism, anti-imperialism, and elements of Muslim antisemitism. In this worldview, Israel was portrayed as a Western colonial outpost and Zionism as a version of imperialism. Ayatollah Khomeini also declared the last Friday of Ramadan as “Quds Day,” establishing annual rallies supporting Palestinians across Iran.
Iran’s support for proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas
Since the revolution, Iran has developed an extensive network of proxy forces to challenge Israel without direct confrontation. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has provided arms, training, and financial support to militias across the Middle East. Most notably, Iran helped create Hezbollah following Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon, providing it with approximately $700 million in annual subsidies.
Iran’s relationship with Palestinian groups evolved strategically over time. Though initially supporting secular Palestinian groups, Tehran shifted support toward Islamist organizations like Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). Iranian officials first contacted PIJ leaders in Beirut in 1987 after Israel expelled them to Lebanon. By 1993, PIJ co-founder Fathi al-Shiqaqi publicly acknowledged: “Iran gives us money and supports us, then we supply the money and arms to the occupied territories”.
Israel’s fear of a nuclear Iran
Among Israel’s greatest concerns is Iran’s nuclear program, which originated during the Shah’s era but was revived in the mid-1980s during the Iran-Iraq War. Though Iranian leaders repeatedly deny developing nuclear weapons, Israel views Iran’s nuclear ambitions as an existential threat.
Israel maintains that a nuclear-armed Iran would be too dangerous for its security and the region. This fear has driven numerous Israeli operations against Iran’s nuclear facilities, including cyberattacks like the Stuxnet malware and targeted assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists.
For Iran, possessing a nuclear threshold capability represents an “insurance policy” against enemies. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has pointed to Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi’s decision to dismantle his nuclear program – which didn’t prevent his overthrow – as justification for Iran’s refusal to yield to Western demands. Furthermore, Iran views the contrast between nuclear-armed North Korea’s immunity and Saddam Hussein’s fate as proof of nuclear weapons’ critical importance.
The 2025 war: What really happened
The 12-day war between Israel and Iran in June 2025 shattered decades of indirect hostilities, marking the first time these adversaries engaged in direct military confrontation.
Timeline of the 12-day war
On June 13, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion with surprise airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, military bases, and infrastructure installations. The assault involved more than 200 fighter jets dropping over 330 munitions on approximately 100 targets. Iran retaliated immediately with Operation True Promise III, launching hundreds of drones and missiles at Israeli territory.
By June 15, Iran and its Houthi allies in Yemen fired ballistic missiles simultaneously at Israel, striking buildings in Bat Yam, Rehovot, and Tel Aviv, killing nine people and injuring about 200. On June 21, after a week of escalating exchanges, the United States directly intervened by attacking three Iranian nuclear sites in Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz with bunker-buster bombs.
A ceasefire was announced on June 23 by then-President Donald Trump after Iran fired missiles at the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, where US forces were stationed. Although both sides accused each other of continuing strikes, the truce largely held.
Key military strikes by Israel and Iran
Israel’s attacks focused on Iran’s nuclear program, missile factories, senior military officials, and nuclear scientists. The Israeli military claimed to have destroyed 120 surface-to-surface missile launchers, representing about 30% of Iran’s missile launch capabilities.
In response, Iran launched between 370-550 ballistic missiles and over 1,000 drones at Israel. Despite Israel’s advanced air defense systems intercepting most missiles (with a claimed 90% interception rate), some strikes penetrated Israeli defenses. Iranian missiles hit military intelligence centers, the Mossad headquarters, and the Bazan oil refinery complex near Haifa.
Why Iran’s proxies stayed silent
Surprisingly, Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” stood idle throughout the conflict. Hezbollah—once Iran’s most powerful regional ally—publicly proclaimed it would not enter the war, even after US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites. Similarly, Yemen’s Houthis did not escalate missile attacks on Israel, and Iraqi pro-Iranian militias refrained from targeting US bases.
This unusual restraint stemmed from Israel’s systematic weakening of Iran’s regional network in 2024, including the military debilitation of Hamas, decimation of Hezbollah leadership, and collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. Without these regional muscles, escalation via proxies simply wasn’t feasible for Tehran.
Civilian and infrastructure damage on both sides
The human toll was devastating but asymmetrical. Israel reported 28 deaths (all but one civilians) and over 3,000 wounded from Iranian strikes. In Iran, casualties ranged from official reports of 400 dead and 3,056 injured to independent estimates of 865-1,190 killed. The strikes displaced millions of Iranians from major cities.
Critical infrastructure damage occurred on both sides. In Israel, the Haifa oil refinery was damaged, while in Iran, electrical and water systems, hospitals, and dozens of residential buildings were hit. The Iranian Red Crescent reported three humanitarian workers killed when their facility was struck.
Why the US joined — and then stepped back
President Trump’s administration maintained a delicate balance between supporting Israel and avoiding another Middle East entanglement throughout the 2025 Israel-Iran conflict.
Trump’s initial support for Israeli strikes
From the outset, Trump and Netanyahu shared common objectives: preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, removing Hamas from Gaza, and diminishing Hezbollah’s power in Lebanon. Nonetheless, they differed significantly on methods. While Netanyahu viewed war as the only viable option given Iran’s nuclear advancement, Trump preferred a “peace-through-strength” approach.
As the conflict escalated, Trump’s rhetoric hardened. He demanded Iran’s “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!” and boasted that the U.S. had “complete and total control of the skies over Iran”. Meanwhile, the Pentagon approved significant force posture changes, including one of the largest peacetime tanker deployments in history and positioning two carrier strike groups in the region.
US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites
On June 21, American military aircraft struck three Iranian nuclear facilities, most notably the fortified Fordow plant near Qom, using bunker-busting bombs. This marked the first time a U.S. president had attacked another country’s nuclear program. Trump called the strikes “a spectacular military success” and claimed the facilities were “completely and totally obliterated”.
Why Washington avoided deeper involvement
After Iran retaliated by launching missiles at the Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, Trump quickly announced a ceasefire. According to intelligence assessments, the strikes destroyed only one of the three targeted facilities completely.
Domestic and global constraints on US action
Prominent Democrats criticized the military action, with Rep. Jim Himes calling it “a clear violation of the Constitution” for bypassing Congressional approval. Internationally, UN Secretary-General António Guterres expressed grave alarm, describing the strikes as a “dangerous escalation”.
Moreover, Trump rejected earlier military plans calling for sustained operations against six Iranian sites, as they contradicted his foreign policy instincts to extract the United States from conflicts abroad.
Why this isn’t America’s war to fight
As military experts assess the 2025 conflict’s aftermath, a fundamental question emerges: Does the United States need to fight Israel’s battles against Iran?
Israel’s military capabilities vs Iran
Even without American intervention, Israel maintains one of the world’s most advanced militaries. With its cutting-edge Air Force featuring F-35s and sophisticated missile defense systems, Israel possesses clear technological superiority over Iran. The Israeli Defense Forces benefit from extensive intelligence networks, including cyber capabilities that previously crippled Iranian nuclear facilities. Even before American intervention, Israeli airstrikes had already destroyed approximately 30% of Iran’s missile launch capabilities.
Iran’s regional ambitions and deterrence
Iran’s primary strategy centers on regional influence rather than direct confrontation with major powers. Through its “Axis of Resistance,” Tehran has historically operated through proxies while avoiding direct military engagement with stronger adversaries. Nevertheless, the 2025 conflict demonstrated Iran’s willingness to absorb significant losses without capitulating, reflecting its determination to maintain strategic deterrence against regional rivals.
The limits of US strategic interest
Essentially, American engagement in Middle East conflicts increasingly contradicts Washington’s strategic pivot toward Asia. Following decades of costly wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, successive administrations have sought to reduce—not expand—Middle East commitments. Unless Iran directly threatens global energy supplies or American forces, Washington lacks compelling reasons to become further entangled in this regional rivalry.
Public opinion in the US on the Middle East wars
The American public shows little appetite for another Middle East conflict. Recent polling indicates 72% of Americans oppose direct military intervention in an Israel-Iran war. In fact, 65% believe the United States should reduce its overall Middle Eastern military presence. This sentiment crosses partisan lines, with both Republican and Democratic voters expressing intervention fatigue.
The cost of another prolonged conflict
Finally, the potential costs of deeper American involvement remain prohibitively high. Pentagon assessments estimate a comprehensive air campaign against Iran would require at least $15 billion monthly, while full-scale ground operations could exceed $25 billion monthly. Beyond financial considerations, military planners project significant American casualties in any extended conflict, undermining domestic support and strategic objectives elsewhere in the world.
What this means for the region and the world
Beyond the battlefield, the Israel-Iran conflict has triggered seismic shifts across diplomatic, economic, and security landscapes.
Impact on nuclear talks and the JCPOA
Following the bombings, Iran suspended cooperation with the IAEA and expelled inspectors. Subsequently, uncertainty looms regarding the location of Iran’s 400 kg of highly enriched uranium. In August 2025, the European three triggered the “snapback” mechanism, reinstating sanctions lifted under the 2015 JCPOA. Iran responded by announcing it is “no longer bound” by the agreement. Evidently, Iran is already rebuilding its nuclear infrastructure, constructing fortified structures at former sites like Taleghan 2.
Reactions from Gulf states and Europe
The GCC states learned three key lessons: diplomatic efforts with Iran must intensify, Israel’s military-driven approach conflicts with their economy-oriented vision, and Gulf unity needs strengthening. After Iran’s attack on Al-Udeid in Qatar, the six Foreign Ministers met to express solidarity, sending a message of regional cohesion. For European actors, the conflict threatens their long-standing efforts to prevent destabilization near their borders.
Energy markets and Strait of Hormuz risks
Approximately 20% of global oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz. A blockade would severely impact Asian markets, as 82% of crude oil leaving the strait was bound for Asian countries in 2022. China purchases around 90% of Iran’s oil exports, while Japan receives nearly 75% of its crude oil through this channel.
The future of Iran’s missile program
Iran has deliberately prioritized missile development as its main deterrence strategy. Former IRGC Commander Jafari revealed that Iran learned from battlefield experiences to improve missile accuracy. Regarding future capabilities, Tehran has developed new anti-ship cruise missiles with automated guidance systems, potentially threatening maritime traffic.
Final Thoughts
The 12-day war between Israel and Iran left both nations claiming victory amid unprecedented destruction. In reality, the conflict produced no clear winner. The war has fundamentally altered the balance of power in the Middle East, with Iran’s proxy network, ballistic missiles, and nuclear program all severely diminished. Yet the Islamic Republic remains intact, unlikely to “disappear in a puff of sanctions or airstrikes”.
Israel emerged with its military reputation enhanced, demonstrating “its ability to project power and harm its enemies across the Middle East”. Ultimately, Israel achieved its two main objectives: significantly setting back Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities and nuclear program. In essence, this merely creates a temporary security bubble rather than a permanent solution.
As a result, both nations face a critical juncture. Iran must calibrate its nuclear rebuild—sufficient for credibility but not extensive enough to trigger Israeli intervention. Certainly, Israel must “guard against hubris,” given the significant hits it sustained.
The strategic outcome appears inconclusive, marking not peace but simply a new phase in institutional hostility. Given these points, Israel would need to preserve both aerial dominance and intelligence penetration indefinitely—a precedent for such sustained suppressive air campaigns exists in Operation Southern Watch, which ran for 11 years over southern Iraq.
FAQs
1. What caused the Israel vs Iran war in June 2025?
The Israel-Iran war began after years of rising tensions and proxy conflicts. It was triggered by Israel’s preemptive airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 13, 2025, following Iran’s earlier missile attacks on Israel in 2024.
2. How long did the 2025 Israel-Iran war last?
The war lasted for 12 days, from June 13 to June 23, 2025, before a ceasefire was announced by then-U.S. President Donald Trump.
3. How many casualties occurred during the Israel-Iran war?
Israel reported 28 deaths and over 3,000 injuries, while Iran’s casualties ranged between 865–1,190 killed and over 3,000 wounded, depending on the source.
4. What were Israel’s main targets during the conflict?
Israel primarily targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities, missile factories, and military installations, aiming to cripple Iran’s long-term offensive capabilities.
5. Did the United States participate in the war?
Yes, the U.S. joined briefly on June 21, 2025, conducting airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites using bunker-buster bombs. However, it avoided deeper involvement after Iran retaliated by attacking U.S. bases in Qatar.
6. Why didn’t Iran’s proxy groups, like Hezbollah or the Houthis, get involved?
Iran’s proxy network was weakened by Israeli operations in 2024, leaving Hezbollah, Hamas, and others too vulnerable to intervene effectively during the 2025 conflict.
7. What impact did the war have on global energy markets?
The war threatened the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil supply passes. Although no full blockade occurred, fears of disruption caused oil prices to surge temporarily.
8. How did the war affect Iran’s nuclear program?
U.S. and Israeli strikes damaged major nuclear facilities, setting back Iran’s nuclear progress by several years. However, by late 2025, Iran began rebuilding and refused further cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
9. What was the global reaction to the conflict?
The UN and European nations called for restraint, while Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states emphasized regional stability. Western countries expressed concern that the strikes would destabilize ongoing nuclear diplomacy.
10. Who won the Israel vs Iran war of 2025?
Neither side achieved a decisive victory. Israel succeeded in damaging Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure, but Iran maintained its regime and regional influence. The war ended in a stalemate, reshaping Middle Eastern geopolitics.