Decoding Why Maritime Trade Still Controls 90% of World Commerce in 2025

Decoding Why Maritime Trade Still Controls 90% of World Commerce in 2025

Maritime trade dominates our global economy in ways most people never realise. Despite technological advances in air and land transportation, an astonishing 90% of world commerce still moves across our oceans in 2025. This isn’t merely a coincidence – it represents the culmination of decades of economic and logistical evolution.

When we examine the numbers, the scale becomes even more impressive. In 2022 alone, approximately 28 million shipping containers travelled through the Trans-Pacific Route. Additionally, maritime trade routes like the Suez Canal save vessels from a 7,000-km detour around Africa, while the Panama Canal eliminates about 8,000 nautical miles compared to circumnavigating South America. The maritime sector hasn’t just maintained its relevance – it has cemented its position as the backbone of international commerce.

Throughout this article, we’ll explore why geography, economics, and innovation continue to favour sea-based trade shipping and how the industry adapts to modern challenges while maintaining its dominance in global supply chains.

Why geography still favours maritime trade

The physical geography of our planet fundamentally shapes global commerce patterns. With oceans covering over 70% of Earth’s surface, the natural pathways of maritime trade remain unmatched in their economic efficiency. More than 80% of global merchandise trade by volume travels via sea routes, underscoring how geography continues to dictate the flow of goods across continents.

Natural coastlines and port access

Access to navigable waters has been a crucial determinant of economic prosperity throughout human history. From ancient civilisations like Phoenicia and Greece to modern global powers, coastal access has consistently enabled commercial dominance. This geographical advantage stems from the ocean’s role as what Admiral Alfred Thayer Mahan famously described as a “great highway” and a “wide common”.

Ports function as essential nodes connecting domestic economies to global markets. The economic impact extends far beyond the immediate port area. For instance, ports in the United States generate approximately $5.40 trillion in annual economic activity and every $1.00 flowing through a port contributes an average of $4.30 in value to the global economy.

Furthermore, port infrastructure creates significant spillover effects. Studies in China have shown that increasing cargo flow positively correlates with economic growth in urban centres, with large ports having a greater impact than smaller ones. Notably, ports benefit not only their immediate localities but also neighbouring regions. Research in Europe confirms that ports have positive impacts on local development with spillover effects into adjacent economies.

The clustering of port infrastructure in regions like China’s Pearl River Delta has attracted foreign direct investment, created jobs, promoted consumption, and stimulated broader economic development. In essence, geography that provides natural port access delivers substantial advantages in the global trading system.

Maritime trade routes vs. landlocked limitations

The contrast between coastal and landlocked nations reveals how profoundly geography influences economic outcomes. Landlocked developing countries face what experts call a “geographical fate” that imposes significant barriers to trade participation.

The disadvantages of landlockedness are substantial:

  • Higher transportation costs: Landlocked countries typically experience trade costs 55 percentage points higher than coastal economies, with their average trade costs equivalent to a 333% tariff compared to 278% for coastal nations.
  • Extended transit times: Goods bound for landlocked countries often wait longer in ports than domestically bound cargo, an average of five extra days in Tanzania’s Dar Es Salaam port.
  • Multiple clearance processes: Goods destined for landlocked countries face at least three customs clearance processes, whereas coastal countries face only one.
  • Limited modal options: Landlocked countries can choose only between two transport modes (air or road) rather than three (including sea), further increasing costs.

The economic consequences are profound. Studies indicate landlocked countries experience economic growth 6% less than their non-landlocked counterparts. This explains why 16 of the world’s 31 landlocked developing countries rank among the poorest globally.

Nevertheless, not all landlocked countries suffer equally. Switzerland, Luxembourg, and Austria have largely overcome these geographic limitations through strong relationships with neighbouring countries, viewing them as markets rather than obstacles. For these successful landlocked nations, proximity to wealthy economies and quality infrastructure has mitigated their geographic disadvantage.

In contrast, Small Island Developing States (SIDS) demonstrate extreme maritime dependence, with 86.5% of imports and 79.8% of exports travelling by sea, almost twice the proportion of non-SIDS countries. Their reliance highlights how geography remains a decisive factor in determining trade patterns, costs, and ultimately, economic destiny.

The economic logic of sea-based commerce

“Between 1995 and 2020, the ocean economy grew 2.5 times, outpacing the 1.9-fold growth of the global economy.” — United Nations Conference on Trade and DevelopmentUN agency responsible for dealing with development issues, particularly international trade

Behind the geographical advantages of maritime trade lies a compelling economic rationale that keeps ships as the preferred carriers of global commerce. Indeed, the numbers tell a powerful story about why businesses consistently choose sea transport over alternatives.

Lower cost per ton-mile

The cost efficiency of maritime transport dramatically outperforms other modes. Sea transport costs approximately $0.80 per nautical mile for container movement compared to $2.50-2.75 per mile for rail transportation. This cost advantage becomes especially apparent over long distances. For example, maritime shipping can save around $2,000 per container when moving goods between Long Beach and Memphis compared to railway transportation.

To put it another way, shipping contributes just 0.3p to a £2.50 cup of coffee, 20p to a £5 bottle of wine, and only $5 to a $100 pair of Nike trainers. Moreover, ocean transport offers consistent pricing, making it the preferred choice for budget-conscious businesses requiring long-distance shipping.

Scalability and bulk shipping advantages

The scalability of maritime transport creates unmatched economic advantages. Modern container ships can carry up to 15,000 Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs)—equivalent to a train fifty miles long. This massive capacity allows businesses to consolidate shipments and benefit from economies of scale.

At the same time, bulk shipping enables significant cost reduction by consolidating multiple shipments, particularly benefiting smaller merchants who lack volume to negotiate favourable rates independently. Furthermore, businesses can maintain lower inventory levels while fulfilling orders quickly by leveraging frequent bulk shipments, consequently improving cash flow.

Meanwhile, the standardised dimensions of bulk cargo containers optimise space utilisation and streamline logistics processes, minimising manual handling and reducing damage risks. Generally, as cargo volume increases, the average cost per unit decreases.

Energy efficiency of maritime transport

Maritime transport significantly outperforms other modes in energy efficiency. Ships consume only 217 BTUs per short ton-mile compared to 289 for railroads, 3,357 for heavy trucks, and approximately 9,600 for air freight. Above all, this efficiency translates to substantial cost savings.

Since 2008, the shipping industry has improved its energy efficiency by about 30%, saving 1.8 million barrels of oil daily and $60 billion in annual fuel costs. Two key factors drove these improvements: slow steaming (reducing speeds by 10% since 2008) and larger ship sizes (grown by over 50% on average).

Consequently, shipping companies continue investing in technologies like hull optimisation, air lubrication, and waste heat recovery that can deliver up to 15% additional energy savings, reducing annual costs by $2-5 million per vessel.

How containerization reshaped global trade

The humble shipping container revolutionised maritime trade in ways few innovations have matched since its introduction in the 1950s. Malcom McLean’s vision of standardised metal boxes transformed global commerce from a labour-intensive process into a seamless, efficient system that ultimately unlocked unprecedented international trade growth.

Standardisation and intermodal transport

Originally developed by trucking entrepreneur Malcom McLean in the mid-1950s, standardised shipping containers created a uniform system where cargo remains in the same container throughout its journey. This innovation dramatically reduced loading costs from $5.86 per ton to just $0.16 per ton. The concept of intermodal transport—where containers move seamlessly between ships, trucks, and trains without unpacking—cuts handling time, minimises damage, and enhances security.

Today, 90% of non-bulk cargo worldwide travels in containers, with the most commonly used sizes being standardized 20-foot and 40-foot lengths. This standardisation prompted the development of specialised container terminals and purpose-built container ships that further streamlined global shipping operations.

Rise of global supply chains

Containerization fundamentally altered manufacturing patterns across the world. By making long-distance shipping economically viable, it enabled companies to source materials and manufacture products in different countries. Subsequently, manufacturing shifted to developing economies with cheaper labour costs as transportation expenses no longer prohibited global production networks.

The efficiency gains led to substantial cost reductions that fostered economic interdependence between nations. Countries became stakeholders in each other’s prosperity, often resulting in more stable international relations and economies that proved more resilient to regional economic shocks. This transformation enabled even smaller nations to participate in global markets, creating a more interconnected trading ecosystem.

TEU-to-GDP multiplier effect

Throughout the 1980s-2000s, container traffic consistently grew faster than global GDP—a relationship economists measure as the TEU-to-GDP multiplier. During the 1990s, this multiplier peaked above 4, meaning container traffic grew more than four times faster than economic growth. From 2000-2008, it remained robust at approximately 3.3.

However, following the 2009 recession, this relationship weakened considerably. The average multiplier dropped to about 1.5 and has recently fallen below 1, suggesting that 1% GDP growth now generates less than 1% growth in container traffic. This shift makes forecasting port traffic increasingly challenging and signals a new phase in the relationship between containerization and economic growth.

The role of ports in national and global economies

“Seaports, both large and small, are undergoing dynamic changes. Ports are going out to sea and terminals are being automated.” — Marek GrzybowskiMaritime industry expert and analyst

Ports serve as critical gateways for global commerce, acting as the vital link between maritime trade routes and inland economic networks. Their impact extends far beyond the immediate harbor area, influencing regional development and national prosperity.

Port infrastructure and economic growth

Port infrastructure directly drives economic activity at both local and national scales. In the United States alone, ports contribute approximately $2.89 trillion to GDP while supporting 21.8 million jobs. The average annual wage for port-related workers reaches nearly $100,000—20% higher than the national average. According to economic analyses, every dollar flowing through a port contributes an average of $4.3 in value to the global economy. This multiplier effect makes ports among the most potent economic engines in modern economies. Additionally, ports handle 41.5% (or $2.10 trillion) of U.S. international trade by value, underscoring their central role in facilitating commerce.

Spillover effects on neighbouring regions

The economic benefits of ports typically extend well beyond their immediate geography. Initially, these facilities generate direct employment through cargo operations, but they ultimately create broader impacts through:

  • Value-added activities that positively affect regional economic development
  • Indirect jobs stemming from local purchases by port-related companies
  • Knowledge transfer, as ports function as information hubs for global markets

Studies in China’s Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region demonstrate that major ports like Tianjin have substantially stronger spillover effects on neighboring areas than smaller facilities. These effects can significantly promote economic development across entire regions.

Port connectivity and trade volume

Port connectivity—a measure of accessibility within global shipping networks—fundamentally shapes a country’s participation in international commerce. More than 80% of global trade volume travels by sea, making maritime connectivity essential for economic competitiveness. Countries with low connectivity remain marginalized from major trading routes, primarily unable to fully participate in the global economy. The Liner Shipping Connectivity Index reveals persistent divides between regions, with Asian ports dominating connectivity rankings. Port efficiency also directly impacts trade volumes, as inefficient facilities become sources of shipment delays, supply chain disruptions, and reduced competitiveness.

Strategic control and the future of maritime trade

The vulnerability of global maritime trade becomes apparent when examining the world’s critical shipping chokepoints. These strategic waterways not only dictate trade flows but also highlight how innovation and geopolitics continuously reshape the maritime sector.

Chokepoints like Suez and Panama

Critical maritime passageways effectively control the movement of global commerce, with approximately 50% of world maritime trade currently at risk of disruption across just four key chokepoints. The Suez Canal alone handles roughly 12% of global maritime commerce, facilitating approximately $1 trillion worth of goods annually. Similarly, the Panama Canal accounts for about 5% of global container trade.

The 2021 Ever Given incident demonstrated this vulnerability dramatically, with the six-day Suez blockage affecting approximately $9.60 billion of cargo daily and impacting about 12% of total world trade. Meanwhile, climate issues have reduced the Panama Canal’s capacity from 38 ships daily to roughly 24 vessels, highlighting environmental threats to maritime routes.

Friendshoring and nearshoring trends

Recently, supply chain strategies have evolved toward “friendshoring”—the practice of rerouting supply chains to countries considered politically and economically safe. This approach represents a significant shift from cost-optimisation toward risk reduction.

Simultaneously, “nearshoring” has gained momentum, with companies relocating operations to neighbouring countries to ensure faster market access. Since 2021, nearshoring has increased by 8 percentage points while reshoring has grown by 10 percentage points. These shifts directly impact maritime trade routes, as evidenced by Mexico replacing China as America’s top trading partner in early 2023.

Digital monitoring and ship risk assessment

The maritime sector is increasingly embracing digitalisation to enhance operational efficiency and safety. Digital technologies now enable effective monitoring, control, and risk assessment throughout shipping operations. Following incidents like the Ever Given grounding, maritime risk assessment methods have evolved to better evaluate risks under various conditions using available data.

Digital platforms allow for enhanced vessel tracking and risk prediction, with the International Maritime Organisation implementing various regulations to improve transport safety. These technological advancements are helping prevent supply chain disruptions while enabling more responsive maritime operations in an increasingly unpredictable global environment.

Final Thoughts

As we look toward the horizon of global commerce, maritime trade stands at a crossroads of both remarkable opportunity and unprecedented challenge. Despite advances in other transportation modes, one fact remains undeniable: maritime shipping will continue to be essential for global trade.

The maritime sector currently faces transformative pressures from multiple directions. Decarbonization represents perhaps the greatest hurdle, with a significant price gap between traditional fossil fuels and low-emission alternatives like e-fuels, ammonia, and e-methanol. Regulatory clarity from bodies like the International Maritime Organisation has become crucial, as many companies remain in a “wait-and-see” mode regarding emissions reduction strategies.

Geopolitical developments increasingly influence maritime routes, often with greater impact than market forces. The prolonged conflicts in Ukraine and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have forced costly rerouting of vessels, with ship transits through the Suez Canal falling by approximately 70% by mid-2024. These disruptions extended shipping routes, strained supply chains, and raised costs worldwide.

Likewise, climate change poses an escalating threat to maritime infrastructure. Key chokepoints like the Suez and Panama Canals face growing vulnerability from both geopolitical tensions and environmental factors. In 2024, the Panama Canal’s capacity dropped from 38 ships daily to roughly 24 vessels due to climate issues.

Fortunately, technological innovation continues apace. From autonomous vessels to advanced hull designs, maritime technology is rapidly evolving toward greater efficiency and sustainability. Hybrid propulsion systems, solar power integration, and wind-assisted propulsion can substantially reduce both emissions and operational costs.

Overall, embracing these technological trends will be vital for industry stakeholders to remain competitive. Yet technology alone cannot bring the major changes required—this remains a shared responsibility across the maritime sector. Only through collective action can the industry meet its challenges while capturing the opportunities that lie ahead as maritime trade continues its centuries-long role as the backbone of global commerce.